Stagnant Population Growth

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A new state forecast from the Department of Finance shows a grim possibility: San Francisco saw one of the highest percentage population losses in the country during the first year of the pandemic, and it may not recover from that decline. The forecast projects a stagnant population through 2060.

Fewer pregnancies and an aging population mean that deaths are projected to outpace births starting in 2024. And while net migration is expected to turn positive next year, the natural decrease in population means the city is projected to fall to about 828,000 residents in 2023, followed by slow growth. By 2060, the city’s population is projected at 845,000, still around 25,000 people or 2.9% below 2020 baseline levels.
A permanently shrunken population in San Francisco could mean a weaker economy, as businesses are already struggling to fill some positions and retailers have closed, citing falling foot traffic. But experts say the city won’t become an affordable housing market by losing people and should continue adding units.In contrast, nearby Bay Area counties are projected to see population growth between 2020 and 2060: Santa Clara County is projected to gain 9%; Alameda County is projected to gain 18%; and Contra Costa County is projected to gain 24%!,(MISSING) the highest percentage in the Bay Area and one of the highest in the state. Sonoma County is projected to see the biggest loss at 16%!,(MISSING) followed by Napa, Marin, San Mateo, and finally San Francisco.
Some regions of California are projected to continue booming: the Sacramento and Central Valley areas are projected to continue to see double-digit percentage population growth, a trend fueled by lower housing costs.
This article fails to mention a few important demographics. First, the large LGBTQ residents, and second, the large Asian residents. On average, LGBTQ have smaller family units,, while Asians tend to have larger family units. Keep in mind, that many Asian (Japan), and European countries are also experiencing zero or negative population growth for decades now.Another factor, with regard to retail business and a new IKEA store (from SF Chron): Retail employment in San Francisco is down about 14%!f(MISSING)rom pre-pandemic, with 66,400 jobs as of mid-June compared with 77,500 in February 2020, Khan said. Most retail jobs are not particularly high-paying, and many may be only part-time, he said.The nearby Powell Street, Stockton Street and Union Square shopping meccas are pockmarked with huge “For Lease” signs. Nordstrom, the giant department store at the nearby Westfield San Francisco Centre, will close this month. Two blocks away, a Whole Foods shuttered in April over security issues that included rampant shoplifting and an overdose death.
I would expect a city with liberal politicians to try something unique to stimulate population growth. What would that be? Use your imagination.

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