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Published: August 13th 2013
As Yogi Bera once said, “It’s like déjà vu all over again.” I feel like I’ve slipped into a time hole sending me back into November/December, 2000. A friend of mine here joked after the election, “Did you hear the election is over and George Bush has declared himself the winner?” The election is over and both heads of the two major parties have declared themselves the winners. The only difference is the 2000 election in the U.S. was actually close. This one probably was not but in both cases, the result will be the same: the looser will win. Democracy can be quirky that way sometimes.
In one corner you have the heavyweight, Hun Sen, who is the longest serving dictator, I mean, Prime Minister in the world. He actually has some experience at losing in the democratic process yet keeping his job. It’s the most amazing thing to me that you can actually get people to come out and vote even when their vote means nothing. That's not exactly true, it does mean something, it just doesn't mean the winner gets to be Prime Minister. It speaks well for democracy that such hope of having one’s voice heard springs eternal. Hun Sen also lost the election of 1993 but brokered a deal with the winner to remain as co-prime minister but then staged a coup against his compatriot. This guy is a survivor. He has one glass eye and shrapnel wounds from the Pol Pot era, he never went to school beyond age 13, he’s a heavy smoker and a zealous drinker. Hun Sen and Bill Gates are proof that you don’t need to go to college to get rich. Hun Sen and his family virtually own the country. They own all of the major media outlets except the English language newspapers. They own all of the largest development projects going on in Phnom Penh and in resort areas down on the coast and they own the breweries and liquor distribution rights. There is virtually no tax on alcohol and cigarettes so as to encourage consumption. I can buy a bottle of Jack Daniels for less in Phnom Penh than I can in Tennessee. His salary as prime minister is $1,750 per month and he claims to have no other income. Yet, he told a reporter, “Some people say I’m the 7
th richest man in the world.” How does one do THAT on $1,750/month? Thank you Paine Webber.
The control of the media gets harder and harder in this day of social media. The opposition leader, Sam Rainsy had been in exile for a number of years. As a gesture of just how open and forgiving he is, Hun Sen allowed the King to pardon Sam Rainsy about three weeks before the election. Rainsy was greeted at the airport to throngs of people lining both sides of the street. You would have thought it was Jesus’ triumphal return to Jerusalem on Palm Sunday! Still, not a single national media outlet covered the story of Rainsy’s return. The English newspapers said the local news outlets were too busy covering the election to spend time on the story of Rainsy’s return. HUH? I’m teaching critical thinking in a country that doesn’t smell a whiff of inconsistency in that statement! Rainsy’s name was not even permitted to be on the ballot yet his every movement and utterance was covered on Facebook, Twitter and social media. It was stunning to watch those under the age of 30 take control of this election. Whatever happens in terms of the final outcome is irrelevant to the fact that a new day has come and the future belongs to my students. They know it and can feel it. I can see it in them. I did not run across a single person in the weeks leading up to the election that claimed to vote for the ruling party.
In the past Hun Sen had successfully kept his grip on power by threatening that if another party came to power there would be another civil war and a potential return to the Pol Pot era. The youngest voters in this election were born in 1995, a full 15 years after the end of Pol Pot’s regime. The 70 percent of the population under the age of 30 has no recollection of those times so the threat rings hollow. Rainsy won because he promised that all Cambodians would begin to share in the nation’s economic advances if he won. Civil servant and government garment factory pay would double ($250 and $150/mo., respectively) under Rainsy and he would institute a retirement pension of $10/month. Most people estimate this could easily be done just by curbing corruption, with no inflation and no tax increases. The economy has been growing at a consistent 7 - 8%!a(MISSING) year but the life of the average Cambodian has not changed or has even deteriorated. Rainsy also tapped into the heavy anti-Vietnamese sentiment. I was able to get more than a few good laughs by telling people I wasn't able to vote in this election--I'm not Vietnamese. Supposedly, Hun Sen allows thousands of illegal Vietnamese immigrants to cast ballots in Cambodian elections. How could you possibly have fraud when all voters are required to dip their finger in indelible ink to show that they have voted? This seems pretty fraud proof to me!
There is an uneasy tension in the air. Rainsy has said he will not accept the election results. The Election Commission is entirely made up of ruling party (CPP) officials. Even by CPP's account they say the Cambodian Peoples Party took 68 seats in the legislature to 55 for the Cambodian National Rescue Party. Just the fact that CPP even admitted an election that close tells me they probably lost. Rainsy wants an investigation into election fraud overseen by the UN. Hun Sen says this isn’t necessary and Cambodia is a sovereign country that can manage its own affairs. He says Rainsy’s accusations are costing Cambodia face on the national stage. The U.S. is threatening to withdraw aid and Hun Sen has said, “Go ahead." "You (the U.S.) offer us 150 old used trucks and the Chinese give us 300 new ones.” With Syria, Egypt and Iraq on the brink, no one from the West is going to step into this mess. Hun Sen has said he’d treat protesters as anti-government revolutionaries and do whatever necessary to maintain order. Tanks and the military have been called in from the Thai border to Phnom Penh "just in case". I think this is probably intimidation more than a real threat. He’s been known to set off explosions during opposition protests just so he can claim violence and send in troops to destroy the opposition. In 1998, several politicized monks were gunned down in extra-judicial killings so he's capable of a strong crackdown. Right now, I just get the sense that there is a lot of back door negotiating going on between the two parties. Publicly, they both seem dug-in to their positions but everyone seems very calm so far.
I don’t feel unsafe and I don’t think Cambodia is an unsafe place. This isn’t the Middle East. Conflict doesn’t get resolved here by shaking your fist and promising an eye for an eye. This also isn't America or Europe. The rule of democracy is less important than the rule of face. Rainsy will let go of a victory if he can achieve reform that will change the election one or two cycles down the road. Cambodians will choose harmony over revolution. I’ve watch how unwilling people are to confront. As long as both parties can gain something they will muddle through. But I also think I’m seeing a change in the youth.
On the last day of the semester in my critical thinking class I tell all of the students, “Raise you right hand, tap your left foot, raise your left hand, stand up, sit down.” And then I asked them why did I just have them do this exercise? In the past, I noted to them that no one stopped to ask “Why?” I told them they had not only have a right but a responsibility to ask “Why?” Terrible things happen when people don’t ask why. I repeated this exercise on Sunday to a room full of students. I was about ½ way through my commands when I started getting a lot of irritated looks. Something was different. I asked them, “why did I do this?” A number of students instantly got it. I then gave my speech about how they had a right to ask why and a responsibility to ask why. I told them this election proves that they are not the future of Cambodia—they are the present. I said this is your country now and remember you must always ask “Why?” They burst into applause. It was an unbelievable moment.
So on a totally unrelated note, I have made a decision to repatriate to the United States in early May, 2014. This experience has been nothing short of amazing. I love how simple my life is here. But, Houston is my home and the United States is my country. I will continue to work here any way I can over the coming years and I hope to be a part of Cambodia’s exciting future. I won’t even rule out a return at some point. But now, I’m excited to be going back to Houston, my family, ALF and my country. Until next May……..on with the adventure.
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Bob Carlsen
Thanks for your commentary on democracy in Cambodia...
and as for Hun Sen owning everything, someone ought to investigate the deal he mad with Koreans to "manage" the entire tourism market in Siem Reap. Hun Sen must be making millions on that deal.