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Covid-19
Indicators pointing one way. “Negativity is like burning plastic: while destroying itself, it annoys everyone with its stench.” – Charbal Tadros No point kicking off with WHO statistics on Covid-19 as it is very easy for anyone to access the data on their website dashboard. The reality is that infections and the death rate globally continue to nudge upwards albeit at declining daily rates in a number of countries. The key societal shift currently is the massive push back from civilians in a number of countries who challenge the iron fist manner in which their Governments have handled the virus. The key themes are; reacting too late, over reaction, an assault on civil liberties, lack of transparency with regards effect of measures and impact on the population and most importantly, the disastrous impact on people’s financial well-being. Economies are in free fall and increasingly the message is that the financial impact of Covid-19 will be far more devastating than the virus itself.
Here in
South Africa there is absolutely no denying that the
gatvol factor is rocketing upwards. This was best encapsulated in an open letter to Government leaders by Mike Abel, published in the Daily Maverick. Basically, he points out that we
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Empty cities across the globe. Will they reset to what they were? all watched doe-eyed as CR told the nation of the gravity of the situation confronting us and the need to go into a 3-week lock down. Most citizens bought into this as it was clearly spelt out that this would allow health authorities the time needed to set up hospital infrastructure to deal with a potential massive spike in infections as per forecast models at the time. This purpose seems to have been forgotten along the way. This is a country which endured almost ten years of State Capture with CR and many of his current inner circle sitting alongside Zuma and not one arrest to date. And yet, the virus is perceived by CR and his buddies to have given them some form of moral authority and absolution. The point they have missed is that the citizens gave Government 5 weeks (adding Stage 4 extension) to get prepared and flatten the curve. The over reach has been diabolical with citizens being told what they may and may not purchase alongside a number of other illogical “twists” e.g. the exercising regime between 6am-9am. CR does not sit in a “ruling party” over this country but is answerable to all citizens
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Thousands of parked and idle aircraft at every airport on the planet. as per the Constitution. He implores CR to use this moment in time to rebuild trust in Government through impeccable behaviour which is sadly lacking when looking at the behaviour of certain Cabinet Ministers and the security forces. The 5-week lock down was essentially to build health care infrastructure, no more and no less. Our infection rate is 0.01 percent and CR needs to listen to citizenry and understand the realities of huge numbers of people doomed to abject poverty as the economy implodes.
On a smaller, micro level, “cabin fever” has become very prevalent. Having previously lived at Mount Edgecombe Golf Estate and also spending many week ends at San Lameer Golf Estate, I have had feedback from mates on those two estates advising that all residents were subjected to the national lock down rules from the outset. There has been no compromise. Social media there has exploded recently with various platforms being used to challenge all manner of rules and regulations. Interesting that this same trend has now emerged at The Links, St Francis Bay, where I currently live. For the initial 3-4 weeks, there was very little kick back against our need to adhere to national
Covid-19
Economies in trouble. Massive tax collection shortfalls. Tax increases looming? Wealth taxes? regulations which means most people felt this was the right thing to do. Well, the
gatvol factor has added a new twist. Tight imposition of national rules and their applicability to The Links is suddenly being vociferously challenged via social media outlets. We are all inundated daily with information overload and I guess the only solution is to be brutal about what you really want to read and ignore the rest. In these tough times it makes huge sense to focus on following what constitutes common sense and is mostly positive.
Back to Covid-19; there is very little conclusive evidence to indicate when this virus will finally run its course. Increasingly countries are either loosening the shackles or hinting of their intention to do so, and the overriding reason is to get some form of economic activity going. The full extent of this virus on humanity remains unknown other than the fact that our World will probably never be the same again. The same can be said about the economic impact. No one knows the extent of damage this will exact on global trade but there is no doubt that the longer the World remains largely “shut down”, the greater will be the final carnage.
Focusing on
South Africa, the
current forecasts on the economic impact are dire. Treasury expects the economy to shrink by 16 percent, job losses could be as high as 7 million, Government debt could balloon to 80 percent of GDP which means debt repayment gobbles up a huge chunk of the annual budget. The R500 billion rescue package being injected into the economy will need budget “re-prioritisation” with infrastructure being trimmed. Not good news! In the midst of all this economic malaise, SAA is all but gone. Or is it? Suddenly the Dept of Public Enterprises announces that they think an opportunity exists to build a new national airline out of the ashes and wait for it;
“ideal replacement for SAA would have been both public and private ownership” (their words!). This is the Ministry headed up by one Pravin Gordhan
, who supposedly was one of CR’s more “capable” ministers. Albert Einstein sums up this tragic-comedy succinctly; “Doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results is INSANITY!”
The reality for the real people of this country (ignoring highly paid and mostly incompetent politicians) is very different. The 5 week lock down has resulted in a huge number of job losses to date and more to come, an estimated one in two small businesses will potentially disappear, some large corporates will go due to not being able to service massive loans, a huge number of salaried employees having to accept salary cuts. One does not have to be an economic genius to join the dots and see where this all leads. We are in all this boat together and there are undoubtedly tough times ahead. Once again, doe eyed we listen to Mboweni and CR talking about the need to get the economy back on track quickly and the need for a new “restructured economy” (whatever that means!).
The key question is simply; can this current Government resuscitate our economy from deep intensive care currently attached to the strongest respiratory equipment ever invented? I don’t know the answer but I suspect if ever there was a time to believe in miracles, this maybe it.
“Life is about accepting the challenges along the way, choosing to keep moving forward, and savouring the journey.” -Roy T Bennett
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Sarah Mallett
non-member comment
A great read
Great blog Dad! First sensible thing I’ve read this week. Scary times ahead, those of us who are lucky enough to have a job that is still in operation I guess just need to keep our heads down and support those who don’t wherever we can!