An extraordinary journey to.....our HOMES

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“They say a person needs three things to be truly happy in this world, someone to love, something to do, and something to hope for.” – Tom Bodett

The latest statistics from the WHO dashboard published at 02:00 am on 1^st May 2020 (SA in brackets):

Global confirmed cases: 3,145,407 (5.647)

Global deaths: 221,823 (103)

Global new cases: 72,848 (297)

Clearly there is little respite from this hugely destructive virus and increasingly reports from many quarters, both academic and political, are stating that it could be around for at least another two years. Problem is, no one knows but perhaps a quick roll back of the clock to the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918-1920 may provide a few “markers.”

Firstly, the Spanish Flu a century ago, was the worst viral pandemic ever in world history. There were three waves of this horrific flu which swept across the globe in 1918 and 1919 killing at least 50 million people. Keep in mind that it is estimated that 40 million soldiers and civilians died in World War 1 which ended in 1918. The world population at that time was about 1.8 billion so close on 5 percent died in those two cataclysmic events. Problem then was they didn’t know it was a virus but understood it was transferred person-to-person through respiratory drops from coughing and sneezing. Sound familiar? Microscopes only became powerful enough to discover viruses in the 1930’s. Covid-19 is far less deadly and targets the elderly whereas Spanish Flu targeted the young. The other striking similarity is that now and, as was the case then, no vaccine and no cure was available. Despite the massive global effort underway to find both solutions for Covid-19, speculation is that this could be anything up to two years away. And then to cap it all, the most effective response back then in 1918-1919 was to practise physical distancing (called “crowding control”). Where it was practiced, it worked. The USA was mobilising its wartime industry for one final push with the Allies to end the war, flu fatalities were low and thousands of troops were heading to the front lines of the war in Europe. The prevailing message then in the USA was “don’t panic, no big deal.” Sound familiar? In October 1918 Spanish Flu hit America with a vengeance and as witnessed recently with widely differing Covid-19 responses, many states at that time chose different approaches to deal with the epidemic. Those cities that chose to lock down and impose social distancing were far less affected than those who adopted a far more relaxed approach. So, what you may ask is the relevance of this information? Well, here we are one hundred years later and confronted by a pandemic of monumental impact and all we can take away from the Spanish Flu experience is that social distancing works. We have no other solutions despite the huge medical advances of modern times.

“Cabin fever” is lassitude, irritability, and similar symptoms resulting from long confinement or isolation indoors during the winter” (or lock down). There is no doubt that globally, huge numbers of citizens of many countries have simply had enough of the draconian lock down and other regulations imposed by undoubtedly panicky Governments. The social and economic impacts to date have been immensely negative and there is little respite on the near-term horizon. Social media (less than perfect) has taken on a more “rebellious” tone with many people questioning those in authority if they have acted correctly. Not assisting this societal shift in sentiment is the World Health Organisation whose handling of the crisis from Day one has been flawed. They are accused of being too close to China which allowed them to be misled by the Chinese as they panicked and tried to suppress the true extent of the outbreak in their country. The timelines would suggest there is some validity to this argument given the WHO only pronounced a real problem in the latter part of January 2020. To compound matters the scientific community is pointing to the fact that the WHO, perhaps incorrectly, based their pandemic projections on a Cambridge University mathematical model which predicted huge infections and deaths which to date have proven not to be correct. The WHO is showing little interest in the growing call to expose China to an independent investigation into the origins of the virus. Does any of this matter? Probably not. Humans, with the benefit of hindsight, more often than not will press any button to get to the truth and those in authority in many countries are rapidly losing the trust of their citizens by ignoring the calls for common sense. The realities of lost jobs and poverty and starvation are bullets that cannot be dodged beyond a certain point which may not be that far off.

There are many Covid-19 theories out there and the only certainty is that none of them are right or wrong because we simply don’t know. Occasionally we probably all read stuff that causes some form of momentary gasp or other response as was the case when I read “The Big Lie behind Covid-19” published by a prominent US investment advisory service. Some of the key points made in the article in no particular order or ranking of importance: (1) We are going through the greatest mass delusion in history due to how completely inane and idiotic political leaders have become in the midst of this pandemic. (2) While it may sound friendly to say “we’re all in this together”- the reality is that we are not. Some of us are at much greater risk of serious harm by this virus and more susceptible to infection. We are individuals-not a monolithic polity. (3) What we do share is a common philosophy that champions the rights of the individual and limits the power of the State which exists to serve the people. Look back at all of the USA’s biggest blunders and freedom and free markets are missing. When liberty is taken from the people in the name of political theory, disaster follows. The decision to fight communism in Vietnam is a classic example of political blundering. (4) Should people all sit in their prisons with rights to freedom to work, associate and speak taken away to support “flattening” a curve. A prediction; when the virus is finally understood it will become clear that lock downs and shutting down of the economy did virtually nothing to stop the spread of the disease. The reason; already apparent that ten times more people have been infected than shown in “confirmed cases.” Deaths are measured against confirmed cases and do not account for those infected and not tested for it due to very mild symptoms and many not even knowing they were infected. (5) We know from experience and data that this virus is no more dangerous than other viruses that circulate around the USA every year. If tens of millions of people already have the virus, you’re not going to stop it by confining people to their homes. It’s already too late. (6) The good news is that super-contagious viruses also burn out quicker because herd immunity impacts the growth rate. (7) The Diamond Princess cruise ship had 3,711 people on board and the virus spread like wild fire infecting 712 people despite cabin lock downs, an infection rate of 20 percent. These folks were in the older age bracket with many other existing ailments and yet only 12 people died; that’s 1.7 percent. Worse than the average flu but not if adjusted for age and relative health of that ship’s population. For the nation as a whole, the lock down orders arrived when the horses had already left the barn. (8) Herd immunity works. The solution is to tell older and sick people to avoid crowds at all costs and stay home. Everyone else; go about your lives. Probably 20 percent will get the virus which may be tough but healthy and fit people probably won’t have any symptoms at all. If civil liberties had been respected this is what would have happened. On the other hand, there are now tens of millions of people who have far more to fear from the economic consequences than of the virus itself. (9) Sweden refused to order anyone to stay at home or shut down their businesses. Their per capita death rate is 0.022 percent. The media and political leaders have sensationalised the virus to the point of seriously misleading the people of the USA. Researchers who studied the cruise ship outbreak in detail conclude that the virus will have 0.5 percent lethality in the general US population; comparable to the regular annual flu. (10) Question posed: what would our founding fathers say today, watching a Governor ordering millions to stay locked up in their apartments while their businesses fail? What would they say looking at us cowering in our homes like whipped dogs?

These are very strong and emotional sentiments and, once again, they at the very least do pose some interesting questions about how Government actions have dominated the landscape in many countries and citizens voices have been largely silenced. I am neutral on the contents of this article and certainly don’t have any answers but economic and social consequences beyond Covid-19 may dramatically change politics and our trust in politicians (which has never been notably high!).

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Photos

Covid-19
A front lawn picnic inspired and organised by Olivia, our gorgeous little Princess.

Covid-19
A solo performance in Times Square, New York

Covid-19
It worked 100 years ago and still works today