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Published: April 10th 2020
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Covid-19
We all owe it to the medical people doing an amazing job around the World. “Hope is the thing with feathers that perches in the soul-and sings the tunes without the words-and never stops at all.”- Emily Dickinson For billions of people around the Globe in some form of lockdown or whatever, the days are prolonged and blur into each other and the question on most minds will be…so when does this Covid-19 nightmare end? There are a multitude of answers and theories proffered by epidemiologists, virus experts and sadly, even politicians. The reality is a lot simpler; no one knows!
A quick update on some of the conspiracies swirling.
The Italian conundrum. An interesting article read recently penned by Giacomino Nicolazzo, one of Italy’s most beloved writers, includes the following direct quotes:
“Sixty million of us are in lockdown…it is like a war zone here. We are being held prisoner in our own homes by an unseen enemy that sneaked in unnoticed…by most of us. As you will read in just a few more minutes, there were those who knew something like this was coming…or at least they should have.Now the reason I mention Renzi (ex-Communist Prime Minister) and the Chinese together is that strange things were also going on between
Covid-19
A searing question. the governments of Italy and China. A blind eye was being turned to the way the Chinese were buying businesses in the financial, telecommunication, industrial and fashion sectors of Italy’s economy, all of which take place in Milano.Throughout all of these purchases and acquisitions, Renzi’s government afforded the Chinese unrestricted and unfettered access to Italy and its financial markets, many coming through without customs inspections.Quite literally, tens of thousands of Chinese came in through Milano (illegally) and went back out carrying money, technology and corporate secrets.Thousands more were allowed to enter and disappeared into shadows of Milano and other manufacturing cities of Lombardy, only to surface in illegal sewing shops, producing knock-off designer clothes and slapping ‘Made in Italy’ labels on them. All with the tacit approval of the Renzi government.”
And while this was unravelling, the European Union and USA sat by and watched and did nothing.
The oil price collapse. Seems like the pain and discomfort got too big for the US Oil Industry and their insane Washington lobbyists kicked into overdrive. A meeting is currently underway between Russia and Saudi Arabia with the objective of reducing production to support the price. That’s what cartels do,
Covid-19
The show will go on... but Donald Trump isn’t indicating what America’s reduction will be claiming their oil demand is already down by 30 percent. That’s what bullies do!
But that inevitable question lingers; when and how does Covid-19 end?
Firstly, a quick look at Wuhan, where it all started in November 2019. Reports are that after the virus peaked in February/March, this city of 11 million people is starting to slowly revert to semi normal business and social activity. And if reports can be believed, some of their wet markets may be open for business. Italy is starting to report lower daily death rates and could in the near future ease some of their lockdown regulations. Austria, Denmark and Finland making a similar noise. South Korea has flattened the curve but they are very concerned at a second wave of infection. Bottom line; there is simply no universal script to follow. Most other countries are fighting huge battles to contain and limit the rate of infection. In the midst of all these “relaxations” as outlined, the WHO is warning nations not to left restrictions too early.
A sobering reminder that the World still has a monumental challenge on its hands as evidenced by the
World Health Organisation Covid-19 Situation Dashboard as at 10am on 10
th April 2020:
Total number of cases: 1,439,516 (an increase of 12.5 percent from the previous day).
Africa has reported 8,337 cases which represents 0.6 percent of the total. An intriguingly low number.
Total number of deaths: 85,711
Africa. Many would have read about the possible correlation between our relatively low rate of virus infection and the administration of the BCG vaccine to prevent tuberculosis. This is a 100-year-old vaccine administered since the 1940’s and it took the form of a punctured stamp on the arm. It is early days but clinical trials are being done by the New York Institute of Technology to establish if there is a causal relationship. A silver bullet for South Africa? Time will tell.
The question remains. How and when? A few scenarios gleaned from research.
· One scenario is that governments come together to agree a plan of eradication dependent on a rapid and cheap point-of-care diagnostic. All countries would simultaneously close their borders for an agreed amount of time and mount an aggressive campaign to identify carriers of the virus and prevent transmission.New Zealand is currently attempting a version of this approach; the country has closed its borders, enforced a lockdown and is rolling out community testing to eradicate the virus.
· A second scenario, which seems moderately more likely, is that early vaccine trials are promising. While waiting for the vaccine, countries would try to delay the spread of the virus over the next 12-18 months through intermittent lockdowns.
· A third and even likelier scenario is that countries follow South Korea’s example while they wait for a vaccine: increase testing to identify all carriers of the virus, trace the people they have contacted, and quarantine them for up to three weeks.
· In the absence of a viable vaccine for the foreseeable future, a final scenario could involve managing Covid-19 by treating its symptoms rather than its cause.
Take your pick. The reality of Covid-19 is that we just don’t have that magic “one-for-all” solution.
All the while we need to remember that there are two pandemics moving in synchronised tandem. The Covid-19 virus and the economic implosion across the World. And that is not about the run on toilet paper, the lack of stock of masks, gloves, ventilators, condoms and sanitising liquids. The trigger in the economic meltdown is the massive and growing unemployment rate notwithstanding that Africa will take by far the biggest smack. In South Africa, by way of example, prior to Covid-19, our unemployment rate was 30%! (MISSING)Scary to think what that might end up being and a very real outcome is social unrest and rampant looting as people run out of money.
Stock markets have tanked and millions of people have seen the value of investments and retirement savings plummet. The end of the virus is nowhere in sight meaning that business failures, people losing jobs and a very likely global recession will continue to hammer markets which currently are in uncontrolled see-saw mode; up one day and down the next. Anxiety prevails and as with Covid-19, no one has a clue about the ultimate financial impact as this virus continues to run its destructive course. Do not for a minute blindly believe all the so-called market experts about their “quick rebound” theories. Like you and I, they simply don’t have the answers.
South Africa has extended the lockdown for a further 14 days which means that by the new target date of 30
th April, we would have been shut down for 5 weeks. A lot can happen in the next 3 weeks and as a nation we have to hope and believe it will be mostly positive.
Daily a flood of information is filling the airwaves. Simply put; most of what one reads and hears is indicative of mankind’s fear of an uncertain future. Will our World return to what we once accepted as “normal?”
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Megan Birkett
non-member comment
Coronavirus
Thank you, Tim! Extremely interesting and well researched. As you say, we simply have to wait and see and hope. In the meantime, we are exercising every day, enjoying our lovely view, reading, watching selected tv, doing numerous maintenance tasks, enjoy the peace and tranquility. No good worrying as we are powerless ??