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Published: March 12th 2014
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Temple near Chikugayoshii
I came, I saw, and then I left because nobody was around. March 12, 2014
Fukuoka, Kyushu
The Gambler’s Fallacy
and How I Ended Up on a Train Full of Elementary-School Kids
Sometimes when I’m in a streak of luck I just feel like
nothing can go wrong. Unfortunately, they can. When rolling dice, it doesn’t
matter how long your streak has been; every roll has the same probability of
crapping out. Forgetting this is known as the Gambler’s Fallacy.
When I left for Dazaifu, a town just south of Fukuoka and the
ancient capital of Kyushu, I was on a streak of good luck. When I woke up, I
realized that I only had 1000 yen, so I would need to find an ATM that could
access international accounts. The only one of which I know so far is at
Seven-Eleven, which is apparently not called normal;">shichi juichi. I couldn’t find the one in Kure, so I decided just
to head for my train, which I caught seconds before it left. Not only that, I
actually got a seat today. When I made it to Hiroshima, I hurried to the
shinkansen gate and caught a Kyushu bound train again seconds before departure.
I must
Single Car Train
Lost in the Inaka. have been tired from yesterday’s hike because I slept most of the way
there.
When I made it to Fukuoka, I figured that I’d poke around
for a Seven-Eleven before leaving on the Kagoshima Line fore Dazaifu. I walked
around the station and ended up waiting for a light that was taking a long
time. Since I didn’t really know where I was going anyway, I figured I’d just
turn the corner and keep walking. Sure enough, I found a Seven-Eleven right
away and withdrew money for the first time here. Thing were going well and I
had enough money for lunch now, so I had two
ume-musubi. (I was just going to save the 1000 for Dazaifu.)
What good luck I was having! I went back to the station and caught the first southbound Kagoshima train I saw, which happed to be leaving right when I got there. It looked different from the other trains near Hiroshima and read something about Kyushu Rail, so I just figured trains there were different.
It was supposed to be a 15 to 30 minute ride depending on what line you took, so after about 15 minutes when I didn’t see or hear my stop I had to make a split decision. Should I get off the train and figure it out or should I stay on. Since I was so lucky, I just went with my gut and got off. I looked around and determined erroneously that since there were only the two tracks that I must have just got off early. I then got on another train headed south.
Sometime later we went under an overpass, which I thought
matched up with the map I had, but was confused because none of the stops
seemed to match. I noticed that a lot of the maps and signs only had the kanji
and not the hiragana versions of the place names, which made it a bit harder,
too. As the landscape turned rural, I started to know that something was wrong.
Then we got way out in the country and the stops were far-between. We even
whizzed past some stops. It turns out I was on some kind of express route and
was about an hour out of Fukuoka when I got off at some small town station.
I figured since I came all the way out here, I’d look around
so I wandered through the countryside. The air smelled really nice and it
seemed to be a fruit-growing region. There was a lot of home economy going on
and the shops and shrines tended to be part of peoples’ houses, so I didn’t
take many pictures. I visited a temple, but there was no one around so I kind
of just wandered around and walked into the one open room. There were “security
cameras” that looked awfully like the fake security camera I got from Uncle
Shig years ago. I didn’t want to intrude, so I didn’t stick around very long.
I eventually wandered into a town called Chikugoyoshii, or
at least that was the name of the train station. There were some interesting
shops, but the one I walked into didn’t have anyone there. I think I could have
called into the house, but I didn’t want anything that bad. I finally found a
map that showed some interesting places, but the sun was getting low so I
decided I needed to get back since I was so far out.
I waited at the station there and got on a single car diesel
train that eventually came around. Looking back, I’m not entirely sure this was
the main track. I got on and finally began heading back. A lot of the people on
the train were students, and I think it was kind of like a “school bus” line.
We made it to a larger station eventually and we ended up waiting around for a
while. I misunderstood what was going on, and when it started up again it was
going back the way I came. I got off at the first stop, which was an elementary
school and explained to station manager that I had got the wrong train. When
the next train came, I boarded with a bunch of elementary kids and headed back
north. I think they had a good laugh about it.
When we got to the station, I got out this time and went to
a train that actually looked like the JR trains I was familiar with. Good
finally something that would take me back. Some of the students boarded, too,
so I felt sure I was on the right track.
I was, but it started south again. It went a different way
though, which alerted me that I was not on the main line this whole time. I got
out and caught a northbound train eventually making it back to Fukuoka. As we
headed back to Haraka station, we passed that station that I had originally
hoped to get off at, so I know it’s there.
Ah, the familiarity of the shinkansen. Shouldn’t be a
problem, right? Checked the schedule, saw the Sakura was headed to Shin-Osaka
with stops in Hiroshima. Got on the Sakura. Wrong Sakura. It went south. I got
off and got on the right train and made the long trip home.
From Hiroshima, I had the choice to get on a slower train
sooner or wait longer for an express train. I took the first train but it
stopped at Saka, and I waited as the express whizzed by. I did find out that
the crazy loud bird that I thought lived there is actually a recording that
they play over and over.
I finally got back with not a lot to show for today. I might
try for Dazaifu tomorrow now that I know better. Without phone or internet
during the day, I have to plan ahead of time. And instead of just using my
intuition, I’ll just ask at the station tomorrow. I guess the lesson is to keep
a beginner’s mind and not let luck or hubris lead you astray.
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