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Published: October 2nd 2020
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Covid-19
Those graphs are not collapsing in tandem with changes in human behaviour.
CLICK TO ENLARGE. “The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.” - Bertrand Russell Covid-19 is now off the front pages and the media is not nearly as fixated with this pesky virus as was the case in recent months. Lock-downs are on hold, South Africa is on Level 1 and there is this far more relaxed mode and mind set suggesting the worst is done and dusted. The key word defining our current human view on Covid-19 is undoubtedly, complacency. How wrong could we possibly be and what will be the upshot of the increasingly “relaxed” outlook on Covid-19?
The compulsion to write further blogs has waned and this edition follows a 3-week break. This suggests it has slipped to back of mind and typifies most people’s current feeling about Covid-19 which is
“we’ve had enough of this intrusion on our lives and time to get back to a new normal.” When in doubt, perspective, backed up by facts and statistics, often clarify a murky picture.
Covid-19 data as at 1st October 2020 was as follows (SA in brackets): World 33,842,281 confirmed Covid-19
The "champions league" of countiies with spiking infections.
CLICK TO ENLARGE cases (674,339)
World 1,010,634 deaths (16,734) The graph alongside clearly shows that the daily infection curve across Europe, North America, Asia and Latin America/Caribbean is still at stubbornly high levels. The current trajectories as depicted in the other graphics suggests that the world is about to enter unchartered waters and just maybe “we have been lulled into a false sense of complacency.” The reality is that the virus is surging again in many regions and countries which had previously “tamed” the beast. Throw in the onset of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, and the fear that colder weather enables faster virus spread, leaves a lingering question: “where to now?”
The economic carnage caused by Covid-19 is akin to watching a horror movie unfold. Here in sunny South Africa, it is estimated by our statisticians that 2,5 million people lost their jobs including 250,000 domestic servants. Business confidence is at an all time low and the ANC led Government has simply run out of money and has had to resort to the begging bowl by way of increased loans which we cannot afford. It is estimated that the virus damage to global economies will be four times worse
Covid-19
This virus has the ability to spread at an alarming rate.
CLICK TO ENLARGE than the 2008/2009 financial crisis. The UN estimates that close to 265 million could face starvation by the end of 2020.
This virus will be on the radar screen for some time with these scenarios essential to perhaps bringing it to an end. Firstly, does “herd immunity” work and will it cause the virus to peter out and disappear? By way of example, if 80 percent of a population is immune to a virus, four out of every five people who encounter someone with the disease won’t get sick (and won’t spread the disease any further).
Secondly, a vaccine needs to be developed and then rolled out globally as a preventative measure. This is serious work in progress in the biopharmaceutical industry but indications are that trials and approval are some 6 to 9 months away. A therapeutic cure has not been found as yet although the medical fraternity are undoubtedly better prepared to deal with seriously ill patients based on learnings since the virus first appeared.
My take on all this; Covid-19 is firmly on the radar screen and will remain there for some time to come.
In the interim, there is a never-ending stream
Covid-19
Europe heading into winter and infections on the rise.
CLICK TO ENLARGE of breaking news involving, mostly those pesky politicians. South Africa leads the pack when it comes to gutter level political leadership. Consider the following;
Ramapromisa gives approval to his Minister of Defence to fly on an air force jet to Zimbabwe. A day after she receives approval, off she goes and she decides to take a whole bunch of ANC leaders with her. Civil society gets to hear about this abuse of power and privilege and quite rightly, gets angry. The self-same
Ramapromisa (who authorised the trip!)
then demands a full report and the upshot is that the ANC will pay back the cost to the Defence Ministry. Lost in translation is the total disregard for procedure in applying for these external travels and Covid-19 regulations at the time. Of course, the prospect of her being fired is non-existent in a country where there are no consequences for the diabolical behaviour of these rampaging political thieves. The corruption and theft by numerous politicians and their connections which fed off the provision of product, equipment and services in combatting Covid-19 is beyond human belief. There are daily utterances, often by the thieves themselves, that no stone will be left unturned in
Covid-19
The sooner this man has "his day in court" and is then thrown into jail, the better. Sadly, this day will never materialise. The ANC know what to do and how to look after their own. the quest to find the perpetrators and “bring them to book”. It’s a world of cliches, promises, denial, blame and sadly, there are to date few repercussions for our special breed of thieves. We have one of the longest running Commissions of Enquiry into “State Capture” which to date has heard mind boggling accounts of theft, wastage and corruption. Not one arrest! We have the Hawks, the Special Investigative Unit, the Public Protector and finally, the National Prosecuting Authority. Yes, South Africa has the field covered when it comes to institutions set up to deal with all this brazen theft but we lack the ability to join the dots and get these known people into court and then orange jumpsuits. Zuma, the architect of state capture and theft, plays his delaying tactics week after week and now wants the Head of the Commission to be recused for nefarious reasons.
We have not quite cornered the market on bizarre political behaviour.
America lurches from one crazy moment to the next and this was the case with this week’s first Presidential debate which was like watching a geriatric steel cage match. Here is the world’s leading country (for the time being) watching two ageing humans rip into each other in a manner never witnessed before in these debates. There was little clarity on what each candidate would actually do for their country. Trump was grilled on “white supremacists”, the moderator was clearly biased in favour of Biden and it all descended into pathetic chaos. America, and indeed the world, deserves better. The jury is out as to who will prevail at the polls in November and this election is in reality the battle of capitalism versus socialism. The Democrats may have unintentionally made a serious blunder by aligning themselves with BLM whose agenda is not worthy of inclusion in any decent, democratic country. Time will tell. In the interim, don’t miss future debates as they guarantee more outrageous and idiotic outbursts from two desperate men. There will be “time out” given that Trump has now tested positive for Covid-19.
The period since publication of the last blog on 12
th September has been blissful and a semi return to “normal”. A long car trip to Johannesburg enabled Sue and I finally re-connecting with our families whom we had not seen since late February. Our small tribe of grandchildren, Olivia, Benjamin and Thomas were a true joy to spend time with. Little Thomas is now talking up a storm and can rattle off the names of different dinosaur species with gusto. The bonus of our time up there was a four-night stay at Berg-en-Dal in Kruger which always delivers and does something special for the soul. Animal sightings were the best we have ever encountered with the Big 5 spotted on two consecutive days. It was with heavy hearts that we left our families earlier this week but returning home to paradise, in the form of St Francis Bay, is not too shabby!
“Hope is the only thing stronger than fear.” – Ed Lester
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Charles Elliott
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There is no doubt that many people are concerned and stressed given our social restrictions, myself included. The impact of lost jobs and the consequences are still to be realized. People are nervous and do not see any positive outcome in the short term, other than sitting tight (in a bubble). Hopefully, a vaccine will be a partial tonic for better things to come? Stadiums without spectators, not good, but OK temporarily and hopefully those who think this is still not for real, "vula amehlo akho" and do your part!