I am totally agree with the road to democracy is not always smooth. That is the reason that we do not want boycott or sanctions in the first place.
For my opinion, boycott or sanction make country become more poor , then people will more hunger ,from hunger to anger on present government, and then come out to the street for protest and hope to topple the government. That is what most of the opposition want. All they want is to throw Junta first. Why can't they work with Junta and bring the democracy step by step .I prefer the way of China where democracy is not there yet but living standard is rise and I'm sure, they will get more democracy very very slowly but surely.
ASEAN country did not agree with sanctions but EU and American alliance push forward for sanctions in the ground of human right issue and etc. etc. but why not Saudi Arabia too ????????? Even England wellcome the King of Saudi with full of human right abuse record .
Come to the question of yours "Is there reason to believe that the different ethnic groups will war against each other if the Junta goes?" there may not be each other , but they will start to ask for independence state from Government and then become like SSR with become so many countries and states today, Russia, Bosnia,Estonia ,Latvia, ,Georgia ,Slovakia ... Most of the main group, Kachin, Karin, Shan, Rakhine, Mon had been asking for independence state since Burma gain independence from British in1948 and rise in rebellion since.
"The different groups in Iraq and Afghanistan have a long history of conflict between them." When Bush want to kill Saddam , Did he ever mention about ???? " He try the world to believe that Saddam have "WMD" and after Saddam, Iraq will be full of prosper and democracy. At this moment , after the years, all he can say is " Oh! My intelligence have wrong report, No WMD was found." Now EU and American try again that if JUNTA go, there will be birth of Democracy. Well, there may be but at what price?
"This might not necessarily happen in Burma."
Everyone only want to think about the good things in future and try not to think of worse thing. I'm aware of if we afraid of worse thing, then noting can come out from present situation too.
My opinion " No boycott, No Sanctions" , fill the stomach of people first and then Democracy.
My question "" Fill the stomach first or Democracy First?? ""
Example.. Look at the Singapore ,everyone said that they do not have full democracy but the government can fill the people stomach .
I would like to hear from you all.