An extraordinary journey to....our HOMES

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“Medicine is a science of uncertainty and an art of probability.”

Covid-19 has mutated into a relentless daily bombardment of information and intrigue and I suspect most humans are now “immune” to the massive impact it continues to have on our daily lives. Much like cabin fever, there is undoubtedly a new variant called Covid fever which causes a myriad of niggling issues, one of them being lethargy. The last blog written in this series was published on 21^st January 2021 and despite really good intentions to do so, the simple act of sitting down and writing some more stuff about this pesky little virus has proved to be elusive.

Covid-19 has definitely not disappeared so that does not present a logical reason for not tapping away at the keyboard. If truth be told, this virus has outflanked and out-maneuvered the very best medical brains on this planet and continues to do so. The one-year “anniversary” of the arrival of Covid-19, gifted to the World by the Chinese, has come and gone and there is absolutely no clear indication of where the virus is headed or when it will end.

COVID-19. In that word is the letter V which has developed a mutation all of its own. The new word and global obsession are VACCINES. It all started roughly 9 months ago with big pharmaceutical companies in the USA throwing the entire laboratory at the challenge of developing a vaccine which could be safely administered to prevent infection. In the normal progression of vaccine development, there is a lengthy timeline to ensure safety and eliminate any harmful, long term side effects. Covid-19 simply forced big pharma to throw away the rule book and by the end of 2020, there were a number of vaccines developed, approved and ready to be administered. The basic premise is that once roughly 70 percent of any country’s population has been immunised, the herd immunity cycle is complete and the virus is contained. That is the theory!

The list of vaccines developed is indeed long and lengthening by the week. We have all read and heard about Moderna, Pfizer, Astra Zeneca, Johnson & Johnson, Novavax and Oxford to name a few. The Chinese and Russians have developed their own vaccine types. The developed World led the race to secure their vaccine dosages whilst the rest of the pack gasped frantically and thrashed around wildly to make similar moves. South Africa simply messed up on a monumental scale and as things stand today, roughly 220,000 people have been vaccinated (all of them high flying undeserving politicians and deserving front-line health workers). The country which has punched way above its weight is Israel which has managed to administer vaccines to most of its 8.7 million citizens. That is impressive but hardly surprising; after all, this is a country with some of the best brains on the planet and which has successfully repelled attempted invasions from Syria, Egypt and contained their Palestinian neighbours for years. I have had the privilege of visiting Israel twice and it is truly astonishing to witness their agricultural enterprise and ingenuity in harsh desert conditions. America is a little behind the curve but to date 143 million doses have been administered. A very sophisticated mathematical model has been developed to provide a guide to how long a country will take, given its parameters, to fully vaccinate their populations. South Africa was given an estimate of 18 years! I kid you not!

So, daily we read and hear about the mad rush to vaccinate people on a scale never seen before in human history. In the midst of all this frantic noise there is a need for a reality check. A question posed and which remains unanswered is: “What if the vaccines reduce the severity of Covid-19 but not the transmissibility?” The issue here is that the vaccine could convert someone who had Covid-19 into an asymptomatic carrier spreading the virus. We forget that the vaccine trials were designed to see if the vaccine prevented symptomatic Covid-19, not total infections. In keeping with the uncertainty of whether the vaccines reduce transmission, those vaccinated are being encouraged to keep social distancing, wearing masks and being cautious. Very different to what swirls in our minds as there is a wide spread perception that once vaccinated, one cannot contract or spread Covid-19. Here is the real eye opener as penned by a highly qualified and rated scientist: “There clearly is an asymptomatic infection rate even after vaccination, although smaller than among the nonvaccinated.” To compound this vaccine uncertainty, there are numerous “theories” being published daily on social media about the safety of being vaccinated. There are basically two camps, believers and sceptics and that will not change anytime soon. Here in South Africa, we will have ample time to individually decide which camp we sit in as our roll out is a comedy of errors to behold.

Continuing with the V theme, another word which dominates the news is VARIANTS. Basically, the Covid-19 virus is undergoing a process whereby different organisms independently evolve similar traits. The boffins have called this convergent evolution which means there are now six unique strains of the Covis-19 virus! Briefly the strains currently known about include; (1) Wuhan (the original bugger “developed” by the Chinese). First discovered in the city of Wuhan in December 2019, it had made its way to America by January 2020. (2) UK strain a.k.a. B.1.1.7 Known to spread faster and more easily than other variants and considered more lethal than the Wuhan strain. Detected in America in December 2020. (3) South African strain a.k.a.B.1.351 Detected in South Africa in October 2020, it shares some of the same mutations as the UK strain. Seems the least responsive to available vaccines and antibody therapies compared with other strains. (4) Brazilian strain a.k.a. P.1 First discovered in Japan in early January 2021 during routine testing of people arriving there from Brazil. Mutations in this strain make it more difficult for antibodies to recognise. (5) New York strain a.k.a. B.1.526 First popped up in New York in November 2020 and one of its mutations is similar to the South African strain in that it evades the body’s response to vaccines. (6) Californian strain a.k.a. B.1.427/B1.429 This is a scary bugger as the mutation affects the spike proteins that protrude from the virus cell which in turn allows this particular virus to more efficiently attach to other cells in the body, making it more infectious.

An impressive “foe” evolving, mutating and outflanking us humans and yet, our brilliant virologists, scientists and the like have mustered their intellectual strength to fight back using three different virus mechanisms. (1) MRNA (Moderna) It works by providing the cells in our immune system with the instructions to make a harmless piece of the spike protein typically found on a Covid-19 cell. Once made, the spike protein appears alien and is attacked and broken down by or immune system. (2) Viral vector vaccines are developed from several different viruses and include a specific characteristic from the target virus; in this case the spike protein. This viral vector then instructs the cells inside our bodies to create the spike protein and stick it on the surface of the harmful cells. It then kicks into gear and the alien “proteins” get neutralized as the antibodies get to work. (3) Protein-based vaccines stimulate the immune system to respond to a disease that’s being produced by an invading organism. It produces nanoparticles which mimic the molecular structure of the virus and once injected into the body, they prime the body into producing antibodies and T-cells that respond to a potential infection.

My apologies for all the jargon but at the very least, I have a far better understanding of the vaccines developed to date. The stark reality is that once in the queue, we will not be in a position to pick and choose which vaccine should be administered. The key take away here is that humanity is largely floundering in unchartered waters and it is our ingenuity that will ultimately get us across the line.

Whilst all this impressive vaccine work is underway, Covids-19 continues to forge a destructive and unpredictable path. Consider right now that most of Europe is moving into stricter lock-downs as second and third waves cause rapid increases in infections. The term “fourth wave” is now hitting the airwaves.

Here, in sunny South Africa our bumbling politicians continue to highlight exactly what an “In-ept-ocracy” looks like. The ludicrously late reaction to the need to actually order vaccines was then trumped by the confusion, lack of information and transparency with different Government leaders sending out mixed messages on a scale hard to fathom. It took a DA court order to get the ANC to finally disclose to the nation what was going on. It was unimpressive to say the least! At this point in time roughly 220,000 people have been vaccinated and our geniuses have a “masterplan” (they are never short of these!) to vaccinate 67 percent of the population by end 2021 to achieve herd immunity. Guess what! This target and completion date has already been revised downwards and confirms what every citizen in this country knows; this ANC Government has an abysmal track record for just about every single thing that it touches or has responsibility for. Cry the beloved country!

“The Government solution to a problem is usually as bad as the problem.” – Milton Friedman

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Photos

Covid-19
Never too late to learn how this virus works

Covid-19
Hurricane season is far from over. Be warned!

Covid-19
Sums it up beautifully. Chaos, confusion, incompetence.

Covid-19
This really happened. Obvious that Malema and his party are simply an offshoot of the ANC waiting for their moment to reattach,similar to the spike protein of Covid-19

Covid-19
All bets are off!

Covid-19
Now this is what an emergency in Ireland looks like.

Covid-19
Zondo Commission. Approaching 24 months and a cost close to R1 billion and the the implicated thieves are still at large and giggling....