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Published: December 30th 2020
Covid-19
A sports stadium in Sao Paolo, Brazil being prepared for emergency hospital beds.
Click to enlargeHere we are on the cusp of ending another year and undoubtedly the vast majority of humans on planet Earth must be hoping and praying for a better new year ahead. 2020 has been a year like no other in recent human history and any thoughts that Covid-19 would be out of the way by year’s end are no more than fantasy.
Christmas is now done and dusted and the one theme that would have played out can be adapted to a Christmas carol;
“’Tis the time to be jolly, tra-la-la la-la-la-la, ‘tis the time to be jolly, CAUTIOUS!!” Globally, countries have learnt to adapt the rules to the Covid-19 scourge in a desperate bid to try and “normalise” people’s daily lives and at the same time hoping to contain the virus. None of the interventions have really worked to stem the second tidal wave now enveloping most countries around the World.
Since March of this year, 30 blogs have been written which is way more than envisaged when the
Covid-19
A serious contender for mask of the pandemic as worn buy a cool dude in Australia.
Click to enlarge. process started. The coffee table book for future generations of our family to flip through to try and understand what the Covid-19 pandemic was all about, gets ever larger. The current scorecard, based on the World Health Organisation dashboard, underpins why there will still be plenty to write about as we nervously nudge into 2021.
The WHO numbers at 28th December 2020 are as follows (with the numbers as at 4
th November 2020 shown in brackets as per the blog published on 5
th November 2020);
World confirmed cases 79,6 million (47,3 million). World deaths 1,76 million (1,21 million). So, in the space of just under two months there has been a 68 percent and 45 percent increase respectively against the prior 8 months. What is very difficult to fathom is that Africa, as a continent, has only reported 1,84 million confirmed cases which is 2,3 percent of the global total. How is this possible? And then of course there is
China, which incredibly has recorded 96,400 cases and 4,778 deaths to date. This is a country with a population of 1.4 billion people where the virus originally started and which to this day steadfastly refuses to allow
Covid-19
Two Chinese girls at Beijing Airport in every imaginable anti-Covid attire including rain coats.
Click to enlarge. the WHO access to try and establish how the virus originated. Anyone who doesn’t have a fleeting conspiracy thought needs to smell their coffee. Ridiculously low numbers as shown, suggest that this just might have been an experimental laboratory mutation that went horribly wrong and the Chinese had somehow planned for an event of this nature. After all, they were the first country to roll out their own home-grown vaccine and who knows when this process started? Their economy experienced a minor wobble but for months now has been shooting the lights out. Is it just a co-incidence that they are the leading producers of masks and all the other stuff the medical industry needs to protect front line health workers?
Australia took them on challenging the Chinese to be transparent and allow access for investigations to be conducted. The Chinese reaction was swift and brutal by way of deep cuts to imports from Australia and no end of threats to take “further steps.” I suspect we will never know the truth as the current crop of global leaders has to be the weakest and most inept in recent history. Look no further than Trump, Biden and Boris Johnson and
Covid-19
A priest alongside a car park in New Jersey, USA, preaching to those parked alongside.
Click to enlarge. not one of the rest of the leading nation heads of state show that they have the “cajones” to do anything about this outrageous transgression. My take on China’s covert actions is that they are shifting the battle for leading power status to trade and economics and this virus allowed them to go about their “agenda” knowing the World has been looking the other way. The rioting and other events in Hong Kong in the past year or so should never have been allowed by the international community to be so brutally suppressed by the mainland. And for good measure, the Chinese are quietly busy with their plans in Africa which they will re-colonise without a bullet being fired. They take a long-term view and who knows what this continent may look like at the turn of this century. I am not a fan of China!
The other talking point which is now getting far more air time is the role of the
scientific community as this virus pursued it’s relentless and destructive flight path. If one subscribes to the idea that science is but a hypothesis
(a supposition or proposed explanation made on the basis of limited evidence Covid-19
Playground equipment in Los Angeles getting a serious bit of "club the virus" treatment.
Click to enlarge. as a starting point for further investigation), then the scientists have made merry with their ever-changing utterances on this pandemic. Consider face masks; the confusion nine months on as to whether they work or not continues despite the Covid-19 Tracking Project determining that there is no difference in caseloads in places where face masks are required by law and where they are not. So, what we have globally are a number of people who believe they have superior brains, ambition, talent and confidence who turn to governments to get power and whatever riches flow therefrom. Many claim to be experts in scientific truth not acknowledging that science is never fixed and can often never be figured out. These guys often put forward one hypothesis which is then discredited and another takes its place. This has been a feature of this pandemic if one reflects on the multiple hypotheses which have flowed on a path of uncertainty. Lockdowns, face masks, social distancing have been key words used by those in authority but nothing has been conclusively proven to be effective. The scientists have had a field day with their ever-changing views but the fact that the World is now dealing with
Covid-19
A coffin in a street in Honduras with grim details as a real life reminder of the perils of Covid-19.
Click to enlarge. a monumental second infection wave suggests they never actually know anything for sure.
Some countries have excelled in their management of the virus. The leading nations are
New Zealand, Taiwan and Australia who have notched up incredibly low infection numbers. Each has virtually stamped out local transmission and they have also ordered sufficient vaccines to cover their populations twice over. On the other hand, a very chilly winter has caused countries which had been doing very well, to move down the rankings. In this group are
South Korea, Japan and Sweden. With regards
Sweden, it makes for an interesting analysis. A very pissed off Australian by name of Sanjeev Sabhlok, infuriated by the draconian regulations imposed in the state of Victoria, has written a fascinating article on what was projected to happen in Sweden and what has actually transpired. He states up front that this pandemic is not the Spanish flu and in fact, is not even in the same league as the Hong Kong flu which hung around until about 1969 killing between one and four million people. In May modellers (read scientists) predicted Sweden would have 100,000 additional deaths this year. But their leading epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, followed the standard approach found in all official pandemic plans (surprise, who knew this even existed?). No coercive lockdown or border closure, no masks and no quarantines. He targeted shielding the elderly but essentially his country was the only one to allow the virus to let rip. This is where it gets interesting. Current official mortality data in Sweden indicates they will have about 97,000 deaths this year against their long-term average annual trend of 92,500. Their officially reported 8,300 Covid-19 deaths are probably overstated and their average two-year death rate in 2020 will be around 0,92 percent, the second lowest in the last ten years. Additionally, 80 percent of the Covid-19 deaths in Sweden occurred among people over 75 years of age. This guy has written a book,
“The Great Hysteria and the Broken State”, and he has also submitted a 68,000-word complaint to the International Criminal Court. He is angry! He hypothesises that lockdowns across the globe have likely killed 2 million people and shortened the lives of hundreds of millions. Reason? Limiting access to health care facilities for people suffering from other life-threatening diseases.
And then, here in sunny
South Africa, we have simply shredded the book entitled “The power of rational thought.” Not surprisingly, there is a second wave testing our inadequate and, in many cases, woefully managed health care system. Our very own
National Command Council thrives on this situation and their ability to impose whatever regulations they deem appropriate ignoring the fact that many don’t make any logical sense. Consider that the taxi industry has been allowed to operate “normally” by filling taxis to capacity and many of us would have witnessed how few masks are worn by occupants and windows are mostly shut. An incubator for the virus to go wild. Shopping malls have zero restriction in terms of numbers with the stipulation that face masks are compulsory. Another fertile spot for the virus to do its thing. Places of social gathering are closed which makes sense. But then a total brain drain moment occurs and people are banned from going to the beaches along the entire coast line. This has to be the one place where social distancing can be properly applied and where an airborne virus stands no chance. So, we have a stretched and abysmal police force spending endless hours monitoring beaches and rivers. The impact on the hospitality industry along the coast has been devastating and many of these vital small businesses would have viewed December 2020 as their last chance to save their ravaged enterprises. Many will now simply fold.
Similarly, the ban on liquor sales will again cause huge hardship for this business segment. The underlying reason is the sad fact that grog causes violent behaviour (which occurs irrespective of a liquor ban) and the hospitals are flooded with trauma cases. Beds are needed for Covid-19 patients. There is no doubt there is outrage across the country at the illogical regulations recently announced and many, many holidays have been totally ruined. This is testing many people’s resolve and mental ability in being able to deal with the negative consequences of this pandemic which now shows no sign of abating.
2021 is just around the corner but I suspect it is a corner many of us would prefer not to peer around. Covid-19 is going nowhere!
To the tune of “Auld Lang Syne”: Should 2020 be forgot And never brought to mind? Should rioting, riots, Covid be To trash can bin consigned? Erase it chapter and verse We’ll take a cup 0’ 80 proof 2021 can’t be worse! With acknowledgements to P.J.O’Rourke: “American Consequences”
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Catherine Kelly
non-member comment
Well said Tim.
Looking forward to a new year but I wonder if we’ll be viewing 2020 with a wistful, ‘better the devil you know’.