Welcome Back the Heat

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Apparently our reprieve from the heat and humidity is now over. I discovered this the hard way by thinking it was a brilliant idea to go for a run and do interval sprints. It was not a brilliant idea. On the flip side, I did get some pictures of the barges on the danube, for those of you who were curious as to the situation there.


First, let me point out a few things about my post yesterday that may have provoked some confusion. Serbia has government-sponsored college education, but no jobs. Therefore, students stick around for (mostly) free (or cheap) education, then move to, say, Germany for jobs. Also, the drinking age is essentially non-existant; the last sentence of yesterday's post may have been poorly worded. Anyway, there are only 4 of us that can legally drink in the US. But everyone can legally drink here. Ergo, the rest of the group is excited about that.



On to more important things: we met with yet another economics expert today, who only further confirmed that this entire region is indefatigably wrecked economically. For example, the employer labor tax here is 64%...great for the state, in theory, but not likely to prompt employers to hire much. But here's where it gets good. They changed the labor law last Friday, but until that time, the longer you were employed before losing your job, the less likely you were to be employed again.



Let me explain further: pension laws were cumulative. If you worked for ABC Corp. for 15 years, then lost your job, but found a new one with XYZ Inc., where you stayed for 2 years, then ABC would be off the hook, but XYZ would owe you pension or unemployment based on ALL 17 years. As of last Friday, each company now only owes you for time you worked with them, meaning that, hopefully, middle-aged unemployment will start to drop.



Other economic issues include: a retirement deficit of 50%, a worker-retiree ratio of 1:1, a planned budget deficit for 2014 of 7%, and a debt:GDP ratio of 65% with no plan to pay it off. They're also likely sitting on the right side of the Laffer Curve, which essentially means that raising taxes at this point will lower state revenue, while lowering taxes will likely raise it (think of a bell curve comparing taxes on the x-axis and revenue on the y-axis...they're beyond the peak of the bell). All in all, it's not a pretty situation.



My run, on the other hand, was a pretty situation. If a bit hot. I ran the park again, but remembered to bring my phone to get some pictures for my avid readers. This city, although quite different from Sarajevo, has its own form of beauty. As I've said, it's a very Boston-like city. As such, it's nice to run in and explore, but I can't wait to explore more new cities soon!

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