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Published: February 1st 2006
The Great Wall
post card like photo... I walked all that is in sight here and then some...Beijing
Jan 20-23
Temp: -5C to 5C
Snow cover: trace
Index:
1) Pre-amble
2) Great Wall visit
3) Beijing cycle day
4) China investment thoughts/advice
1) Pre-amble
I arrived in Beijing the afternoon of the 20th and was happy to get off the train. The ride through northern China was quite an eye opener. The Chinese countryside is poor, dirty and bare. The visibility for the entire journey was never greater 1 kilometer due to massive amounts coal consumption. I met a fellow from Ghana on the train who said that there are more people living below the poverty line in China than all of Africa. Whether this is true or not, I do not know… but a gander through any part of rural China surely points in that direction. China’s population now stands at 1.3 billion accounting for ~15% of the world’s population. While this number is staggering, it would be MUCH higher were it not for the one child policy implemented in 1976.
I was fortunate to be able to stay with my second cousin’s (one removed) fiance’s sister (follow that?!) Lucy and her husband Pan and 3 boys (9, 7, 3). I was
A wee bit of snow
although I dreamed of hiking the wall in the snow, I was glad there wasn't too much as it would have been dangerous lucky on a few fronts; it was nice to live ‘normally’ which I haven’t for the past 4 weeks and it was great to chat with Pan who is native Chinese.
2) Great Wall visit
Given I was only to be in Beijing for 2 days (proved to be a mistake), I needed to utilize my time wisely. I spent the first day hiking the Great Wall and as you can see from the photos, the weather was perfect. My friend Magda whom had lived in Beijing for a bit suggested I go to Simitai: a section of the Wall which is less touristy and restored than other parts. I actually went to Jingshangli (spelt incorrectly I am sure!) and walked the 10.5kms (3 hours) to Simitai where my driver picked me up. In case one needs more evidence why I highly recommend winter travel… in a country with 1.3 billion people I HAD THE ENTIRE WALL TO MYSELF. Not a word of a lie… in 3 hours of walking, I did not encounter ONE single tourist or local… and this was on a sunny Saturday afternoon! The Wall is quite challenging and I cannot imagine hiking it
in 30C+ weather along with hoards of other tourists. There were bits that had been restored but for the most part the Wall was in various states of ruin. Apparently, during the Cultural Revolution many of the farmers took rocks from the Wall to build houses. This practice has since been banned but there are areas of the Wall where it is only 1 meter wide necessitating adjacent foot path usage. The Wall was built over a number of centuries with the bulk erected during the 14th century to prevent those formidable Mongol horsemen from northern invasion. This marks the second ‘Wonder of the World’ that I have seen (the first being Ankwor Wat in Cambodia) and it certainly is worthy of the esteemed status. It is a must see and I would highly recommend shying away from touristy parts of the Wall as droves would certainly detract from the grandeur of the experience.
3) Beijing cycle tour
I thought it would be fun to cycle around Beijing the second day in true Chinese fashion. Pan & Lucy lent me their more ‘bourgeois’ bike which they thought would reduce the chance of it being nicked. I was staying
15kms out of the city so I cheated a bit and hitched a ride in with Pan. From there, it was Beijing cycle mayhem. I cannot stress how ridiculous the road system and transport is in Beijing. I would not be surprised to learn than 10,000+ people die every year. The ‘bike’ lane is a bike lane when the buses aren’t pulling in and out of stops and impatient motorists aren’t using it to pass traffic on the right. The solid yellow line separating the traffic might as well not exist. Not only does one have to worry about motorized traffic, but there are varying types of ‘bicycles.’ There are the 3 wheeled ‘taxis’ as well as bikes that have small motors. Nonetheless, I managed fairly well. Pan said that not 10 years ago, Beijing was FULL of bicycles and everyone cycled everywhere. He says that 25% of Beijingers now own cars and the schools are filling up with fat children. Worse, the pollution is suffocating to the point where many cyclists wear face masks.
My first stop was the Pearl market where everything and anything can be bought for a price. I bought 3 pairs of jeans for $30
Wall in ruins
an example of part of the Great Wall that hasn't been restored... as well as a bunch of photography equipment to replace parts I’ve lost. Heavy negotiating makes the process amusing and frustrating at the same time. The consumer benefits from the fact that there are 10+ vendors selling the same thing. I would grind one down to the point of walking away and then try to create a market by going to other vendors with the price to see if they’d beat it. In the absence of price tags on items and not wanting to get ripped off, this seemed the best way to identify price points. The Chinese economy is built on fake items. Everything is a knock off to the point where the top two floors (of 5) of the market, which in fact carry ‘real’ pearls, must be separated from the rest! The tenacious 28 year old woman who sold me my jeans (change room incidentally was in front of everyone!) claimed that I was stingy (loved the compliment) and that she hadn’t made any money off of me… just a friend. I pointed out that we weren’t friends and that I was SURE she turned a profit … we had a good laugh.
I could have spent
Black and White
look at my little Canon go! hours in this market, but I was determined to not make my Beijing experience defined by shopping for cheap knock off gear. I found it very difficult to capture any beautiful photos of Beijing mainly due to the horrible air pollution. I thus decided to try and capture regular Beijingers engaging in regular ‘Beijing activities.’ Once I turned my photographic focus away from sights and towards people, I had a riot stealing quick photos of unsuspecting subjects. I went to Tianamen square which was teeming with tourists and locals alike. I decided, much like at Lenin’s mausoleum, to give Chairman Mao’s a miss. I can’t for the life of me figure out why he is so revered when during his ‘reign’ over 30 million Chinese were killed. Many of the intelligentia were forced to ‘re-educate’ by being sent into the countryside to work the land during the Cultural Revolution. Teachers plowed fields, engineers assembled radios while Muslims raised pigs. Incidentally, no one knows exactly how many people died in Tianamen square in 1989 as the government has still yet to release names and numbers.
Perhaps the most enjoyable part of my day was spent in Jangeng park. Lucy had suggested
I visit the park as it was common to see people signing opera and playing musical instruments. There were approximately a dozen groups of 20-50 people gathered around playing instruments, signing and dancing. Music genres varied from opera to traditional Chinese and jazz. Groups were generally organized in a circle with one or more directing the goings on. I have never seen anything like it and the people were having a blast. The photos I’ve taken are good but the video footage I have is absolutely priceless! I stayed for a good 2 hours soaking up the ambiance.
I then cycled through the old part of Beijing north of the park. This area is characterized by narrow lanes and old style Chinese houses. It was nice to be immersed in traditional Chinese neighbourhoods and I was able to take some great photos.
4) China investment thoughts/advice
I regret not spending more time in Beijing and will likely re-visit in the future. It is true that China is experiencing a construction boom; I have never seen so many cranes and construction sites in my life (Berlin, last year was close). Real estate is about as expensive as Vancouver and
Useful equations
just in case you're stuck in traffic doing some physics and can't remember equations... I can’t for the life of me understand how people are coping. The Olympics in 2008 will no doubt attract world attention. China must be very careful how it manages its growing city population as the wealth gap is widening daily. I am going out on a limb here but I predict a MAJOR economic recession in China which in turn could lead to a minor worldwide recession in the next 3-10 years. Here my reasons, in no particular order:
1) most state run enterprises are not making money
2) almost all loans are issued by government owned banks. They are estimated to have in excess of $600B in non-performing loans… real figures could be significantly higher
3) pressure from the West will force Chinese economy to shift away from fake goods to ‘real’ goods at some point
4) historically, most building booms are followed by a bust
5) Beijing is already over budget for the Olympics and could face a long and nasty financial hangover once all is said and done
6) demographics will not be kind to China. Due to the one child policy, there are many more citizens over 40 than under and they will place tremendous
Beijing Olympic Countdown
they are hosting summer Olympics in 2008 and suprinsingly they aren't ready and are over budget... strain on already shabby social systems
7) corruption is rampant especially in the banking sector
8) a drop in the USD is especially bad for China… most of their foreign currency reserves are in the USD (due to their widening trade gap)
9) wherever it is obvious that money is to be made and one simply ‘can’t go wrong’… usually the opposite happens… last example: Tech ‘boom’ in the late 90s.
At the risk of dispensing investment advice (this is after all what I do), here is how to play China. Rather than invest directly in China where accounting disclosure is no where near as transparent as in Europe or North America, I would suggest investing in domestic companies that sell products or services to Chinese customers. In Canada, this would mainly be commodity related firms such as oil and metals. Many of these firms represent good value and will likely not have China as its only customer. Commodity based firms also have a market determined price for their product(s) meaning that if the Chinese market dries up, they don’t need tremendous marketing dollars to find new customers. Lastly, weakness in the Chinese market will show up in these
Tienamen Square
government opened fire on protesters here in 1989 killing an estimated 2000... they STILL have yet to release official names and figures... firms first as they sell input materials (copper, aluminum, steel etc…) and the investor can get out quicker and relatively unscathed than if they invested in an end producer such as a Chinese home construction or electronics firm. Who knows what will happen, but I am very skeptical of economists and promoters who tout China as the next ‘can’t miss’ and world financial titan.
I am presently 30,000 feet in the air on my way to Manila via Hong Kong. I have a beach hut rented in the Palawan islands (Philippines) (www.dolarog.com) where I will read, work and commit to at least two work-out sessions a day… must get fit for the end of the squash season! I anticipate sending one more blog from the Philippines and then a final one summarizing my trip and statistically quantifying my voyage.
I would be remiss not to wish you all an enjoyable election day in Canada. For those who are new subscribers to my blog and not from Canada (or American and never really know what’s going on north of the 49th!), we are having a federal election on January 24th to re-establish our silly minority government. One last bit of investment
tidbit… if the election goes as planned (which from what I can tell we’re looking at a Conservative minority) then expect a rally in the Canadian dollar above $0.87USD.
Best and happy polling, Jason.
PS... all this was written on Jan 22nd... look at the CAD go!
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Arash
non-member comment
soar my precious duck
I look forward to your return so we can celebrate the ascent of the Canadian dollar and discuss our predictions for the global economy over the next decade.