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Published: March 31st 2020
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Covid-19
Louis Pasteur. A pioneer who we owe big time! ‘Let me tell you the secret that has led me to my goal. My strength lies solely in my tenacity” – Louis Pasteur Louis Pasteur, a Frenchman, was born in 1822. He was a biologist, microbiologist and chemist renowned for his discoveries of vaccination and pasteurisation. His work and discoveries saved the lives of countless millions at the time and continue to do so to this day. What would he deduce of the Covid-19 pandemic in these modern times? Fortunately for mankind, we have a brace of brilliant people of the calibre of Pasteur working frantically to discover a vaccine and cure for this modern-day virus. Unfortunately, the indications are that a vaccine will not be developed before 2021 due to the extensive trials which precede the development and approval of any new vaccine.
There is a huge amount of information on all social media platforms about the virus and every news station on TV adds to the overload. No point in regurgitating statistics and anecdotal stories. Huge amount of information all there for viewing at leisure.
At times like these it is often rewarding to try and see what lies beyond the obvious which at this point
Covid-19
In the USA, a parking lot for idle planes. includes:
1. This virus will be around a lot longer than people like Donald Trump espouse. Much of what the Don says is as clear as mud!
2. Millions around the World will contract the virus. Some 80% will have mild symptoms and recover.
3. An unknown number of people will succumb to this virus and lose their lives. Primarily older folk and those with compromised immune systems.
4. The World may well be a very different place when this is all over.
There are some fundamental factors which will ensure that our World post Covid-19 will have a very different “feel” to it. What will the impact be of the following?
1. Millions staying at home with some able to continue their work remotely. Many will simply lose their jobs and source of income. Think tourism in SA which employs 1 in 23 people employed. Now shutdown.
2. Places of leisure e.g. pubs, restaurants, holiday resorts shutting down with no income stream. Along with countless small enterprises not operating and unable to pay costs and employees.
3. On line purchases growing exponentially threatening an already seriously wounded retail sector.
4.
Covid-19
A feature of many shop shelves Worldwide. This is Hong Kong. Huge empty office blocks in major cities with massive rental costs for tenants not able to function at anywhere near normal income generating capacity.
5. The list goes on and on……
This then begs the question. How could our World look after this all comes to an end?
No one has the answers but I suspect the way people work and live may well change irrevocably. Researchers at Imperial College London estimate that social distancing, self-isolation and rolling lockdowns could last until the third quarter of 2021. Get your head around that! Of great concern is how do people in densely populated townships across Africa practice social distancing?
Maybe panic buying will ease and supermarket shelves will be reasonably stocked. But maybe it isn’t a question of what’s available but how many people will be able to pay for it? Millions live week to week and huge job losses will shut down their ability to earn an income. So far, the focus has been on what will happen to hospitals as they struggle to deal with the growing numbers needing hospitalisation. What of those billions who simply run out of money? In Africa, mass unemployment means mass poverty means starvation beyond levels of the recent past.
Many people now work remotely from home and there must be a growing realisation that much of what traditionally has happened face-to-face in the office can be replaced by technology which is still on a steep upward curve. So, offices will shrink and people may just pop in a few times a week. Just maybe the fear that working from home means "I am not really contributing" will dissipate.
What will happen to business travel which in the past was a sort of “given” and hopping on planes was easily and readily justified? Airlines globally are in melt down and many won’t survive. Maybe we will all see a plane trip as a very efficient means of spreading the virus and simply choose not to fly.
What about food production? We lived in a World where there were few borders or blockages to the flow of food stuff but maybe in the future out of season fruits and vegetables will not be fulfilled by imports. Supply chains may well change beyond what existed in the past.
The age of on-demand delivery is already upon us and businesses like Amazon and their competitors will grow massively creating a huge smack for the traditional brick and mortar retailers. The knock-on impact for shopping centres and retail sector employees could be massive.
I ramble on but the reality is no one knows where our World, as we knew it, is heading. As economies contract from unprecedented collapses in supply and demand, the likelihood of a global recession increases and unemployment will spike. Already there is much talk about social necessity justifying paying people without expecting work in return and some countries e.g. Canada and Finland are experimenting with a type of universal basic income.
What about schools and universities? Social distancing is not an option for them so just maybe the emergency methods now in place will be around for some time into the future. By way of example, we have our seven-year old grand-daughter with us and she is continuing her schooling remotely with her curriculum being emailed regularly by her school in Bryanston. The internet of things!
Is there a bright spot in all these unknowns? Bizarrely there is. Apparently with industry and travel on hold in many countries, scientists are reporting massive drops in the release of nitrogen dioxide with China’s and Italy’s pollution levels down by 30 and 40 percent respectively. Maybe there will be a realisation along the way that countries will think “greener.”
A final word. Our World is constantly changing and evolving but Covid-19 may be the unintended trigger that accelerates social and economic change. As always there will be winners and losers but this time around those who lose opportunities to survive will need a shared responsibility to protect them. Therein lies a massive challenge for mankind.
What can we do as individuals? Maybe simple things like paying something weekly to our domestic servants and gardeners who have to stay at home. Donations to those in need via reputable channels.
Of course the fascinating question is:
What are individuals and families doing day by day to keep themselves busy and occupied? After all we are only on Day 5!
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Brett Wilson-Jones
non-member comment
Enjoyed the history lesson and your insights into the future - very much in agreement. Find a new hobby and keep on eye on your finances -good time to read and learn.